ARTIKEL I China Leadership Monitor

Anfang Dezember ist die 74. Ausgabe des „China Leadership Monitor“ erschienen. Das vierteljährliche von mir geschätzte Online-Magazin beschäftigt sich dieses Mal vor allem mit dem 20. Parteitag und seinen Folgen. Joel Wuthnow (U. S. National Defense University) analysiert   “Xi´s New Central Military Commission” und fragt in der Unterzeile provokativ: “ A War Council for Taiwan?” Seine Antwort: “Rather than designed to lead a war, the new CMC will be charged with pursuing the PLA’s overall modernization, which includes becoming better prepared for future contingencies.“ Guogang Wu (Stanford University) geht in “New Faces of Leaders, New Factional Dynamics: CCP Leadership Politics Following the 20th Party Congress” der Frage nach, ob mit der Zementierung der Macht von Xi die Fraktionsbildung in der KP-Spitze beendet sei. Eher nein, sagt er: “In the years to come, factional competition will be inevitable due to significant political, administrative, and institutional factors within the dictatorial regime. Generational change, in terms of internal elite circulation and power succession, will also fuel power struggles among those sub-Xi factions that are now taking shape.” Minxin Pei (Claremont McKenna College) seziert in “Policy Continuity with Theorical Escalation: Parsing Xi Jinping´s Political Report to the 20th Party Congress” den Bericht Xis und kommt zum folgenden Ergebnis: “Xi’s report to the 20th Party Congress signals a continuation of Xi’s current policy agenda in his third term.” Alicia García-Herrero (Chief economist of Asia Pacific bei Natixis) malt in “The Covid-19 Pandemic and China´s Economic Slowdown” ein eher düsteres Bild der chinesischen Wirtschaft: “Even if the Covid restrictions are lifted, China might see a temporary recovery but the structural deceleration will still lead to growth at around 2 percent by 2030. This implies that any convergence with the U.S. economy will not continue for long.”

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Die Artikel des China Leadership Monitor kann man hier nachlesen: https://www.prcleader.org/current-issues

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